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2006 Oscar Winner Predictions

Nominations are in order of most likely to suceed but things with "***" are my favorites in the group.

Best Picture:
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, and Good Luck
I have yet to see either Capote or Brokeback Mountain however there is almost no chance Capote is winning this so let's ignore that. Munich was a let down and a filler nomination. Good Night, and Good Luck, while good, I felt was a bit slow and not as good as the top two: Crash and Brokeback Mountain. From what I've heard, Brokeback is a bit slow and is getting much of its hype just because of its subject matter. Crash was phenominal so I feel that it would make the best winner, though all the hype is for Brokeback Mountain.

Best Director:
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis, Crash***
Steven Spielberg, Munich
Bennett Miller, Capote
All the hype this year has been around Brokeback and its director, Ang Lee (whom I don't like too much), has been getting a lot of respect along with the movie. Clooney has gotten a lot of praise for his direction which is why I ranked him second and my favorite, Haggis, is third but I feel that if by some miracle Crash wins Best Picture, Haggis could win here, too. Spielberg gets the fourth spot only because of his name and the biggest surprise nomination, Miller, is last.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote***
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck
Phillip Seymour Hoffman's spot-on imitation of Truman Capote has all the hype going into the Best Actor race. The only way he won't win this is if Brokeback Mountain, which seems to have been, if anything, losing steam, gains much of its push back, and enough to have Ledger, the only in this category I haven't seen, pull ahead of him. I am a HUGE fan of Terrence Howard and would like to see him win for his great performance in Hustle & Flow. However with the support of a Golden Globe win behind him, Jaoquin Phoenix will likely have a better chance of winning. Last is Strathairn, whom I feel shouldn't have gotten nominated in the first place, and will without a doubt not win the Oscar.

Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica***
Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
Charlize Theron, North Country
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Reese Witherspoon, the only one I've seen in this category, has building hype as we head into Sunday for a good performance, one which earned her a Golden Globe, but from the limited amount that I have seen Huffman in Transamerica, I would rather see her win. Knightley would be a huge surprise but not as much as both Theron or Dench. This is a two-woman race, and it looks increasingly like Huffman may be too far behind.

Best Supporting Actor:
George Clooney, Syriana
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Matt Dillon, Crash***
William Hurt, A History of Violence
What I believe to be one of the deepeset groups, I love Dillon's racist cop from Crash but the movie was such an ensemble piece that he will not win. I think another one of the Crash boys should have beaten out Hurt for the final spot, but the point is none of them would have won, and neither will Hurt. Gyllenhaal's chances are dying along with the decreasing hype around Brokeback, but it is still a possibility for him to sneak in and win it. Right now, it seems like a two-man race between Giamatti and Clooney, and although I would favor Giamatti, Clooney is the darling of the Oscars this year, it will go to him.

Best Supporting Actress:
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener***
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote
Frances McDormand, North Country
I've only seen one of these performances, but Weisz was great and it earned her the Golden Globe. Unfortunately for Williams, Brokeback is about two men, so her performance is a little discredited. Adams has gotten a lot of praise but the normally comedy-shy Oscars will not reward her and the remaining two are unfortunately just filling up spots.

Best Original Screenplay:
Paul Haggis, Bobby Moresco, Crash***
Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Good Night, and Good Luck
Stephen Gaghan, Syriana
Woody Allen, Match Point
Crash will win all categories its nominated for that Brokeback isn't. This is its best bet becuase the script is co-written by last year's writer of Million Dollar Baby. Baumbach has a good script in the category which often shows the most respect to comedy but it is not the best this year. Clooney could take this since everyone loves him but it's doubtful and both Gaghan and Allen recieved for scripts that are far from their best.

Best Adapted Screenplay: (no favorite)
Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain
Dan Futterman, Capote
Jeffrey Caine, The Constant Gardener
Josh Olson, A History of Violence
Tony Kushner, Eric Roth, Munich
More love for Brokeback here as it also won the Globe in this category. Both AHoV and Munich didn't have great scripts and The Constant Gardener would be a surprise to win. Capote needs a big push if it wants to surprise, but it's still possible.

Best Foreign-Language Film: (no favorite)
Paradise Now
Joyeux NoŽl
Don't Tell
Sophie Scholl: The Last Days
I don't know much about these movies...okay, I don't know anything except for what Paradise Now is about. Paradise won the Globe but the hype is with Tsotsi...I'll go with Paradise now.

Best Animated Feature: (no favorite)
Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Corpse Bride
Howl's Moving Castle
Howl's was a filler, Corpse Bride was dissapointing, I've only seen a bit of W&G but it has the hype so who am I to disagree?

Best Documentary, Feature:
March of the Penguins
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
Darwin's Nightmare
Street Fight
I've only seen Murderball and thought it was excellent. I can't imagine March of the Penguins being better but it has the hype and the most box-office sucess in the bunch. Enron and Darwin would be surprises but Street Fight won't win.

Best Documentary, Short Subject: (no favorite)
The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club
God Sleeps in Rwanda
The Mushroom Club
A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin
I've heard good things about Kevin Carter and Rwanda but I've heard even more good things about Kevin Carter and that's why I picked it.

Best Original Song:
Kathleen "Bird" York, Michael Becker, Crash***
Dolly Parton, Transamerica
Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman, Paul Beauregard, Hustle & Flow
Crash has got the edge here, but it's a close category. I could see Hustle & Flow sneaking the win but it will need a nice boost.
Best Original Score:
John Williams, Memoirs of a Geisha***
Gustavo Santaolalla, Brokeback Mountain
John Williams, Munich
Alberto Iglesias, The Constant Gardener
Dario Marianelli, Pride and Prejudice
I've heard all of the scores except for Prejudice but Geisha is the best by far and it's got the hype.

Best Cinematography:
Rodrigo Prieto, Brokeback Mountain
Dion Beebe, Memoirs of a Geisha
Robert Elswit, Good Night, and Good Luck***
Wally Pfister, Batman Begins
Emmanuel Lubezki, The New World
Another win for Brokeback.

Best Film Editing:
Hughes Winborne, Crash***
Claire Simpson, The Constant Gardener
Michael Kahn, Munich
Mike Hill, Dan Hanley, Cinderella Man
Michael McCusker, Walk the Line
Crash is fast-paced without losing its meaning or interest and it is why it will win this category. That and the fact that Brokeback Mountain isn't nominated.

Best Costume Design:
Colleen Atwood, Memoirs of a Geisha***
Sandy Powell, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Gabriella Pescucci, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Jacqueline Durran, Pride and Prejudice
Arianne Phillips, Walk the Line
Memoirs was a huge dissapointment but that was mainly because it looked so beautiful and the movie wasn't as good as the art, makeup and costumes. That's why categories like this can earn Geisha the Oscars that it was supposed to earn.
Best Art Direction:
John Myhre, Gretchen Rau, Memoirs of a Geisha***
Grant Major, Dan Hennah, Simon Bright, King Kong
Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
Jim Bissell, Jan Pascale, Good Night, and Good Luck
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer, Pride and Prejudice
See above category, it's the same thing.

Best Makeup:
Howard Berger, Tami Lane, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe***
David LeRoy Anderson, Lance Anderson, Cinderella Man
Dave Elsey, Annette Miles, Star Wars: Episode III — Revenge of the Sith
Narnia's makeup team did a great job of really making the actors look from another world, especially the witch. That's why it will win this category.
Best Visual Effects:
Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers, Richard Taylor, King Kong***
Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney, Scott Farrar, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Dennis Muren, Pablo Helman, Randy Dutra, Daniel Sudick, War of the Worlds
Peter Jackson is a special effects genius and that's why, like with Lord of the Rings, he will likely win this category with Kong.

Best Sound Mixing:
Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges & Hammond Peek, King Kong***
Paul Massey, D.M. Hemphill & Peter F. Kurland, Walk the Line
Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline & John Pritchett, Memoirs of a Geisha
Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic & Tony Johnson, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer & Ronald Judkins, War of the Worlds
King Kong's sound is huge and powerful and its got the edge over the nice styling sounds of Walk the Line.

Best Sound Editing:
Mike Hopkins & Ethan Van der Ryn, King Kong***
Wylie Stateman, Memoirs of a Geisha
Richard King, War of the Worlds
See above, it's the same thing.
Best Short Film, Live Action: (no favorite)
Ausreisser (The Runaway)
The Last Farm
Our Time Is Up
Six Shooter
I don't know anything, I haven't even heard hype for this category.

Best Short Film, Animated: (no favorite)
The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation
The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello
One Man Band
I don't know anything about these but the hype is around 9.

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